Market Reports / June 4, 2026

MLB Market Report | June 4, 2026

9 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 84

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 84, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
84
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
PIT @ HOU
Density
33.0%
3 of 9
Passed
6
of 9
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
TOR @ ATL
Market
1.5
Model
-0.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
TOR @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SF @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ MIN -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ BOS -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAD @ ARI -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ NYY 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
OAK @ CHC 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PIT @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
San Diego Padres @ Philadelphia Phillies -1.6 pp away
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox -1.8 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ New York Yankees -0.1 pp away
Toronto Blue Jays @ Atlanta Braves -6.2 pp away
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros +0.5 pp toward model
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks -1.0 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
6 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GamePIT @ HOU› GameTOR @ ATL› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet›

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