Chalk finding value: 3 signals lean toward favorites.
March 12, 2026 · Updated 2026-03-12T14:15:05.035028Z
Observation
Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 4 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
-1.0
CLV Held
9 / 5
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
9 of 5
-4 of 5
Top Edge · Settled
Orlando Magic -15.0
4.5%+
Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic · WAS 131, ORL 136
Model: -18.0
·
Close: -14.0
·
CLV: -1.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
WAS @ ORL
+8.0%
-1.0u
MIL @ MIA
+6.2%
Final MIL 105-112 MIA
BKN @ ATL
+5.0%
Final BKN 97-108 ATL
DAL @ MEM
+4.6%
Pending
BOS @ OKC
-2.4%
Pending
DEN @ SAS
+2.0%
Pending
PHI @ DET
+1.6%
Final PHI 109-131 DET
CHI @ LAL
-0.1%
Pending
PHX @ IND
-0.8%
Final PHX 123-108 IND
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on -4 of 5 settled games.
BKN @ ATL
Open: -14.5
·
Close: -13.5
BOS @ OKC
Open: -6.5
·
Close: -4.5
CHI @ LAL
Open: -11.0
·
Close: -11.5
DAL @ MEM
Open: +4.5
·
Close: +11.5
DEN @ SAS
Open: -6.0
·
Close: +4.5
MIL @ MIA
Open: -6.0
·
Close: -7.5
Near Misses
Brooklyn Nets vs Atlanta Hawks
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entry did not hold and the close did not help. Logged either way.
Sharp Principle
Graded on the close, not the final score.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›