Market Reports / March 14, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 14, 2026

7 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 59

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On March 14, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 7 NBA games and found only 3 signals worth sending, with 4 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
59
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
WAS @ BOS
Density
43.0%
3 of 7
Passed
4
of 7
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Signal
Signal Published
Orlando Magic +3.5
ORL @ MIA
Market
3.5
Model
-1.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
WAS @ BOS -20.0 4.5%+ FILTERED
ORL @ MIA 3.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SAC @ LAC -13.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BKN @ PHI -9.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ ATL -9.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
CHA @ SAS -5.5 Below 2% PASS
DEN @ LAL -3.0 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers -2.5 pts away
Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks +14.5 pts toward model
Charlotte Hornets @ San Antonio Spurs +8.0 pts toward model
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics -6.0 pts away
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 pts away
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
2-5
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes4 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameWAS @ BOS› GameORL @ MIA› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator›

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