Market Reports / March 15, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 15, 2026

7 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 56

Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 5 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.

MEI
56
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
MIN @ OKC
Density
29.0%
2 of 7
Passed
5
of 7
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Signal
Signal Published
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
MIN @ OKC
Market
-8.5
Model
-10.9
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIN @ OKC -8.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
GSW @ NYK -14.0 4.5%+ FILTERED
DAL @ CLE -15.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
UTA @ SAC 3.0 3.5 to 4.4% SIGNAL
IND @ MIL -7.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
DET @ TOR -3.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
POR @ PHI -8.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder +7.0 pts toward model
Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors -9.0 pts away
Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks +5.0 pts toward model
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers -13.0 pts away
Golden State Warriors @ New York Knicks -10.5 pts away
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings -4.0 pts away
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
2-5
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameMIN @ OKC› GameGSW @ NYK› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnThe Real Cost of a Bad Bet› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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