Market Reports / March 15, 2026 / Evening Edition

NBA Slate Recap | March 15, 2026

7 games analyzed 2 signals Net: +1.0u
Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

Favorites dominating the edge board. 5 of 6 on chalk.

March 15, 2026 · Updated 2026-03-15T14:15:04.573028Z
Evan Cole · Head of Signal Intelligence
Observation

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 56, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

Slate Result
+1.0u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
5 / 5
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
5 of 5 0 of 5
Top Edge · Settled
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 4.5%+
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder · MIN 103, OKC 116
Model: -10.9 · Close: -8.5 · CLV: +0.0
Win · +1.0u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
MIN @ OKC +7.5%
+1.0u
GSW @ NYK +6.4%
Pending
DAL @ CLE +6.0%
Final DAL 130-120 CLE
UTA @ SAC -4.4%
Pending
IND @ MIL +3.9%
Final IND 123-134 MIL
DET @ TOR -2.5%
Final DET 108-119 TOR
POR @ PHI -1.0%
Final POR 103-109 PHI
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on 0 of 5 settled games.

MIN @ OKC
Open: -8.5 · Close: -15.5
Model edge
DAL @ CLE
Open: -16.5 · Close: +9.5
Market efficient
DET @ TOR
Open: +3.5 · Close: -5.5
Tied
GSW @ NYK
Open: -14.0 · Close: -3.5
Market efficient
IND @ MIL
Open: -7.5 · Close: -12.5
Market efficient
POR @ PHI
Open: +7.5 · Close: -5.5
Market efficient
Near Misses
Golden State Warriors vs New York Knicks 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks 3.5 to 4.4%
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entries held and the close agreed. Both matter.
Sharp Principle

Nothing removed. Ever.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
›
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
2-5
CLV beat
2 of 7

This slate had 7 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 2. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
This Week's Reports
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameMIN @ OKC› GameGSW @ NYK› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play› MorningHow the morning called it: NBA market report›

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