Market Reports / March 12, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 12, 2026

9 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 56

Most slates look efficient on the surface. On March 12, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 9 NBA games and found only 3 signals worth sending, with 6 games falling short of the threshold.

MEI
56
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
WAS @ ORL
Density
33.0%
3 of 9
Passed
6
of 9
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Orlando Magic -15.0
WAS @ ORL
Market
-15.0
Model
-18.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
WAS @ ORL -15.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ MIA -6.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BKN @ ATL -15.0 4.5%+ FILTERED
DAL @ MEM 4.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ OKC 6.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
DEN @ SAS -6.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
PHI @ DET -15.0 Below 2% PASS
CHI @ LAL 11.0 Below 2% PASS
PHX @ IND -9.0 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons +9.0 pts toward model
Phoenix Suns @ Indiana Pacers +1.5 pts toward model
Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic -11.5 pts away
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks -1.0 pts away
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat +1.5 pts toward model
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies -7.0 pts away
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
2 of 7

This slate had 9 games. A typical bettor might scan all of them and find reasons to play half. SharpPicks qualified 3. Selectivity compounds.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameWAS @ ORL› GameMIL @ MIA› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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