Market Reports / March 16, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 16, 2026

8 games analyzed 4 signals MEI: 60

The model reviewed 8 NBA games on March 16, 2026 and found 4 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 4 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
60
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
PHX @ BOS
Density
50.0%
4 of 8
Passed
4
of 8
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Signal
Signal Published
Phoenix Suns +9.0
PHX @ BOS
Market
9.0
Model
6.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
PHX @ BOS 9.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
POR @ BKN 9.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAL @ HOU 2.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
ORL @ ATL 3.0 3.5 to 4.4% SIGNAL
GSW @ WAS 7.5 Below 2% PASS
DAL @ NOP -8.5 Below 2% PASS
SAS @ LAC 9.0 Below 2% PASS
MEM @ CHI 6.0 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks -9.0 pts away
Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards -2.0 pts away
Phoenix Suns @ Boston Celtics +5.0 pts toward model
Portland Trail Blazers @ Brooklyn Nets -10.0 pts away
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans +6.0 pts toward model
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets +4.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
2-5
CLV beat
2 of 7

Most bettors would have played 3 to 5 games on this slate. SharpPicks found 4. The gap between those two numbers is where edge lives.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes4 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GamePHX @ BOS› GamePOR @ BKN› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnBeginner's Guide to Sports Betting›

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