Market Reports / March 19, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 19, 2026

8 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 52

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 52, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
52
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
PHX @ SAS
Density
38.0%
3 of 8
Passed
5
of 8
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Signal
Signal Published
San Antonio Spurs -9.5
PHX @ SAS
Market
-9.5
Model
-13.4
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Passing is a decision, not an absence of one. These games remained below the level required for official publication.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
PHX @ SAS -9.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CLE @ CHI 13.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ UTA 5.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
LAL @ MIA 3.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
PHI @ SAC -3.5 Below 2% PASS
ORL @ CHA 5.0 Below 2% PASS
DET @ WAS 14.5 Below 2% PASS
LAC @ NOP -1.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards -4.5 pts away
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls +9.0 pts toward model
Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans +6.0 pts toward model
Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat +11.0 pts toward model
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs -8.0 pts away
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings +5.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
2 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 5 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes5 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GamePHX @ SAS› GameCLE @ CHI› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnCLV Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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