Underdogs carrying the value. 3 of 4 edges on dogs.
March 19, 2026 · Updated 2026-03-19T14:15:06.251075Z
Observation
Most slates look efficient on the surface. On March 19, 2026, SharpPicks analyzed 8 NBA games and found only 3 signals worth sending, with 5 games falling short of the threshold.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
8 / 4
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
8 of 4
-4 of 4
Top Edge · Settled
San Antonio Spurs -9.5
4.5%+
Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs
Model: -13.4
·
Close: -9.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
PHX @ SAS
+8.0%
-1.0u
CLE @ CHI
+7.1%
Final CLE 139-109 CHI
MIL @ UTA
+5.3%
Pending
LAL @ MIA
-2.5%
Pending
PHI @ SAC
-1.9%
Pending
ORL @ CHA
-1.5%
Final ORL 111-130 CHA
DET @ WAS
+0.8%
Final DET 117-95 WAS
LAC @ NOP
+0.7%
Final LAC 109-124 NOP
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on -4 of 4 settled games.
CLE @ CHI
Open: +13.5
·
Close: +4.5
DET @ WAS
Open: +16.0
·
Close: +20.5
LAC @ NOP
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -7.5
LAL @ MIA
Open: -3.5
·
Close: +7.5
MIL @ UTA
Open: +4.5
·
Close: -37.5
ORL @ CHA
Open: -5.0
·
Close: -20.5
Near Misses
Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
Process first. Results follow or they do not.
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