Market Reports / March 21, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 21, 2026

10 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 59

Selectivity is part of the product. Rather than forcing action on every game, SharpPicks filters for true mispricing and leaves the rest alone. On March 21, 2026, that process resulted in 3 published signals and 7 passes.

MEI
59
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
OKC @ WAS
Density
30.0%
3 of 10
Passed
7
of 10
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Dallas Mavericks +7.0
LAC @ DAL
Market
7.0
Model
3.6
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
OKC @ WAS 21.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
LAC @ DAL 7.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIL @ PHX -11.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
IND @ SAS -18.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PHI @ UTA 6.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MEM @ CHA -17.5 Below 2% PASS
GSW @ ATL -10.0 Below 2% PASS
LAL @ ORL -3.0 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ HOU -2.0 Below 2% PASS
CLE @ NOP 4.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Washington Wizards -2.0 pts away
Memphis Grizzlies @ Charlotte Hornets +9.0 pts toward model
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New Orleans Pelicans No movement
Los Angeles Lakers @ Orlando Magic -4.0 pts away
Golden State Warriors @ Atlanta Hawks +12.5 pts toward model
Indiana Pacers @ San Antonio Spurs -1.0 pts away
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-4
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
This Week's Reports
← Previous report Next report →
Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22
Related
Passes7 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameOKC @ WAS› GameLAC @ DAL› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

Only the signal layer is hidden.

Full model output. Live alerts. Bet tracking. One pick beats five.

Claim Founding Spot