Market Reports / March 25, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 25, 2026

12 games analyzed 6 signals MEI: 74

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 74, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
74
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
WAS @ UTA
Density
50.0%
6 of 12
Passed
6
of 12
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Utah Jazz -4.5
WAS @ UTA
Market
-4.5
Model
-7.3
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Most games never become signals. That is usually a sign of market efficiency, not a missed opportunity.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
WAS @ UTA -4.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BKN @ GSW -11.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
DAL @ DEN -12.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHI @ PHI -6.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SAS @ MEM -16.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ LAC 4.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
HOU @ MIN 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
OKC @ BOS -2.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAL @ IND -10.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
ATL @ DET 2.5 Below 2% PASS
MIA @ CLE 3.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ POR -12.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons +4.0 pts toward model
Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers +15.0 pts toward model
Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers -3.0 pts away
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics -12.5 pts away
San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies +11.0 pts toward model
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves +7.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
3-3-1
CLV beat
2 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes6 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameWAS @ UTA› GameBKN @ GSW› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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