Market Reports / March 29, 2026

NBA Market Report | March 29, 2026

9 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 63

The model reviewed 9 NBA games on March 29, 2026 and found 5 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 2 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
63
ACTIVE
Top Edge
4.5%+
NYK @ OKC
Density
22.0%
2 of 9
Passed
7
of 9
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Signal
Signal Published
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5
NYK @ OKC
Market
-8.5
Model
-13.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

A pass does not mean nothing happened. It means the market price stayed close enough to the model projection that no durable edge was detected.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
NYK @ OKC -8.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ POR -16.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIA @ IND 9.0 4.5%+ SIGNAL
GSW @ DEN 12.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
ORL @ TOR 2.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
BOS @ CHA -1.0 2 to 3.4% PASS
HOU @ NOP 6.0 Below 2% PASS
SAC @ BKN 1.0 Below 2% PASS
LAC @ MIL -15.5 Below 2% PASS
Line Movement
Los Angeles Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 pts toward model
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets +13.5 pts toward model
New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder +4.0 pts toward model
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets +6.0 pts toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท NBA
Record
2-4-1
CLV beat
1 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 7 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 3.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes7 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's NBA edge rankings› GameNYK @ OKC› GameWAS @ POR› WeeklyNBA Weekly Summary› LearnEdge Calculator› TonightHow the slate played out: NBA evening edition›

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