Signal density at 80 percent. The market is mispricing tonight.
April 15, 2026 · Updated 2026-04-15T15:02:07.611268Z
Observation
Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 12 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
13 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
13 of 15
2 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Cleveland Guardians -1.5
4.5%+
Cleveland Guardians vs St. Louis Cardinals · CLE 3, STL 5
Model: -2.2
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
CLE @ STL
-6.0%
-1.0u
BOS @ MIN
-6.0%
Final BOS 9-5 MIN
SF @ CIN
-6.0%
Final SF 3-8 CIN
MIA @ ATL
-6.0%
Final MIA 3-6 ATL
TB @ CHW
-6.0%
Final TB 8-3 CHW
TEX @ OAK
-6.0%
Final TEX 2-4 OAK
NYM @ LAD
-6.0%
Final NYM 1-3 LAD
TOR @ MIL
-6.0%
Final TOR 1-2 MIL
SEA @ SD
-6.0%
Final SEA 6-2 SD
WAS @ PIT
-6.0%
Final WAS 0-2 PIT
LAA @ NYY
-6.0%
Final LAA 4-5 NYY
COL @ HOU
-6.0%
Final COL 1-3 HOU
ARI @ BAL
-0.5%
Final ARI 8-5 BAL
CHC @ PHI
-2.7%
Final CHC 11-2 PHI
KC @ DET
-3.4%
Final KC 1-2 DET
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 15 settled games.
ARI @ BAL
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
BOS @ MIN
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CHC @ PHI
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CLE @ STL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
COL @ HOU
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
KC @ DET
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies
2 to 3.4%
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
Receipts over narratives.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›