Underdogs carrying the value. 6 of 9 edges on dogs.
May 7, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-07T15:00:30.763637Z
Observation
This slate produced a market efficiency score of 64, signaling a active environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
8 / 10
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
8 of 10
2 of 10
Top Edge · Settled
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
4.5%+
Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · CIN 3, CHC 8
Model: 0.3
·
Close: -1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
MIN @ WAS
-6.0%
Final MIN 5-7 WAS
CIN @ CHC
-6.0%
-1.0u
PIT @ ARI
-6.0%
Final PIT 4-2 ARI
BAL @ MIA
-6.0%
Final BAL 3-4 MIA
TB @ BOS
-6.0%
Final TB 8-4 BOS
STL @ SD
-0.7%
Final STL 2-1 SD
CLE @ KC
-2.1%
Final CLE 8-5 KC
TEX @ NYY
-2.5%
Final TEX 2-9 NYY
NYM @ COL
+4.2%
Final NYM 2-6 COL
OAK @ PHI
-7.4%
Final OAK 12-1 PHI
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 2 of 10 settled games.
NYM @ COL
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
BAL @ MIA
Open: +1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CIN @ CHC
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CLE @ KC
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
MIN @ WAS
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
OAK @ PHI
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
A miss on both axes. The ledger takes it as it is.
Sharp Principle
Graded on the close, not the final score.
How the morning called it
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