Market Reports / June 17, 2026

MLB Market Report | June 17, 2026

14 games analyzed 3 signals MEI: 76

The model reviewed 14 MLB games on June 17, 2026 and found 10 spots with measurable disagreement versus the market. Only 3 cleared the full qualification filter, which is consistent with SharpPicks' selective approach.

MEI
76
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SD @ STL
Density
21.0%
3 of 14
Passed
11
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Cleveland Guardians +1.5
CLE @ MIL
Market
1.5
Model
-0.0
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

SharpPicks treats discipline as part of the edge. When projected value stays below the qualification line, the game is logged as a pass rather than forced into action.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
MIA @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ MIL 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
COL @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
KC @ WAS 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
LAA @ ARI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
TB @ LAD 1.5 Below 2% PASS
BAL @ SEA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
TOR @ BOS 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ CIN 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
PIT @ OAK 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
DET @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ STL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds +0.4 pp toward model
Kansas City Royals @ Washington Nationals -3.3 pp away
Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies +1.1 pp toward model
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros No movement
Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox -0.8 pp away
Chicago White Sox @ New York Yankees -0.5 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
4-3
CLV beat
5 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes11 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSD @ STL› GameDET @ HOU› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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