Market Reports / June 19, 2026

MLB Market Report | June 19, 2026

14 games analyzed 2 signals MEI: 81

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 81, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
81
HIGH OPPORTUNITY
Top Edge
4.5%+
SF @ MIA
Density
14.0%
2 of 14
Passed
12
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Baltimore Orioles +1.5
BAL @ LAD
Market
1.5
Model
-0.5
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
WAS @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CLE @ HOU 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
BAL @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ SEA -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ CHC -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
CIN @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
PIT @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SD @ TEX 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
CHW @ DET 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
MIN @ ARI 1.5 Below 2% PASS
MIL @ ATL 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAA @ OAK 1.5 Below 2% PASS
STL @ KC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
SF @ MIA 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers +1.5 pp toward model
Washington Nationals @ Tampa Bay Rays +6.1 pp toward model
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers -0.8 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros +1.2 pp toward model
St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals -0.5 pp away
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies +1.1 pp toward model
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
6 of 7

Every passed game on this slate represents capital preserved. Over a season, the passes matter more than the signals.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes12 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameSF @ MIA› GameWAS @ TB› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play›

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