Market Reports / June 20, 2026

MLB Market Report | June 20, 2026

14 games analyzed 6 signals MEI: 86

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 86, signaling a rare inefficiency environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

MEI
86
RARE INEFFICIENCY
Top Edge
4.5%+
CIN @ NYY
Density
43.0%
6 of 14
Passed
8
of 14
Track your edge → Check your CLV →
Signal
Signal Published
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
CIN @ NYY
Market
1.5
Model
-0.4
Edge
4.5%+
Status
SIGNAL

Efficient markets create fewer mistakes to exploit. On slates like this one, the strongest move is often restraint.

Game Breakdown
MatchupSpreadEdgeStatus
CIN @ NYY 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
MIN @ ARI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BAL @ LAD 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
BOS @ SEA 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
CHW @ DET 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
WAS @ TB 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
NYM @ PHI 1.5 4.5%+ SIGNAL
SF @ MIA 1.5 2 to 3.4% PASS
SD @ TEX 1.5 Below 2% PASS
LAA @ OAK 1.5 Below 2% PASS
CLE @ HOU 1.5 3.5 to 4.4% FILTERED
PIT @ COL -1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
MIL @ ATL 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
TOR @ CHC 1.5 4.5%+ FILTERED
Line Movement
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees -1.9 pp away
Toronto Blue Jays @ Chicago Cubs -1.2 pp away
San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers +0.4 pp toward model
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves -0.2 pp away
San Francisco Giants @ Miami Marlins -1.5 pp away
Cleveland Guardians @ Houston Astros -0.5 pp away
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
5-2
CLV beat
6 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 8 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is a market efficiency score?
The Market Efficiency Index (MEI) measures disagreement between the SharpPicks model and market prices across a full slate. Higher scores indicate more potential opportunity.
Why were most games passed?
A game is passed when the model's projected edge falls below the 4.5% qualification threshold. The market price is close enough to the model's estimate that betting offers no meaningful expected value.
What makes a game qualify as a signal?
A signal requires the model's edge to exceed 3.5% AND pass confidence and validation filters. The four ensemble models must show sufficient agreement on direction.
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Related
Passes8 games the model passed on› EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings› GameCIN @ NYY› GameMIN @ ARI› WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary› LearnWhy We Pass More Than We Play› TonightHow the slate played out: MLB evening edition›

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