Slate Recap · Sharp Journal · Evening Edition · 2 min read

Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 2 signals, mostly dogs.

Observation

This slate produced a market efficiency score of 75, signaling a high opportunity environment. That matters because higher efficiency usually means fewer exploitable gaps between the model and the market.

Slate Result
+0.9u
Net · 1-0-0
+0.0
CLV Held
12 / 15
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient Model edge
12 of 15 3 of 15
Top Edge · Settled
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 4.5%+
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers · BAL 12, LAD 1
Model: 0.2 · Close: -1.5 · CLV: +0.0
Win · +0.9u
Signal cleared. The model's read held against close.
Edge Map
CIN @ NYY -12.0%
Final CIN 4-1 NYY
BAL @ LAD -10.9%
+0.9u
SF @ MIA -7.3%
Final SF 1-2 MIA
NYM @ PHI -5.9%
Final NYM 2-6 PHI
PIT @ COL -3.9%
Final PIT 8-6 COL
SD @ TEX -2.4%
Final SD 3-4 TEX
MIN @ ARI -2.3%
Final MIN 4-2 ARI
BOS @ SEA -0.1%
Final BOS 1-3 SEA
CLE @ HOU -2.1%
Final CLE 1-2 HOU
CHW @ DET +5.8%
Final CHW 4-5 DET
STL @ KC +6.2%
Final STL 12-10 KC
LAA @ OAK -10.4%
Final LAA 9-7 OAK
WAS @ TB -11.9%
Final WAS 3-4 TB
TOR @ CHC +13.7%
Final TOR 0-0 CHC
MIL @ ATL +14.3%
Final MIL 9-4 ATL
Closing Line Audit

Market closed within model fair value on 3 of 15 settled games.

BAL @ LAD
Open: -1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
MIL @ ATL
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
TOR @ CHC
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Model edge
BOS @ SEA
Open: -1.5 · Close: -1.5
Market efficient
CHW @ DET
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
CIN @ NYY
Open: +1.5 · Close: +1.5
Market efficient
Near Misses
Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees 4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
The entries held and the close agreed. Both matter.
Sharp Principle

A loss that beat the close was a good trade.

How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›
Last 7 graded signals ยท MLB
Record
6-1
CLV beat
5 of 7

The difference between a winning year and a losing one is usually not the picks you hit. It is the 13 games like these that you do not play.

Common Questions
What is CLV?
Closing Line Value measures whether the price you got on a bet was better than the closing line. Positive CLV correlates with long-term profitability. The evening edition reports CLV against the closing line and against model fair value separately.
Why no red L badges on losses?
Outcomes are reported without color-coded punishment. A loss is a data point, not a failure. The framework holds when every signal is verified and every pass is documented, regardless of how any single result fell.
What is a pass day?
A pass day is a slate where the model issued zero signals. Pass days are not missed opportunities. They are the system refusing to manufacture signals where the data does not support them.
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Related
Passes13 games the model passed on EdgesToday's MLB edge rankings GameMIL @ ATL GameTOR @ CHC WeeklyMLB Weekly Summary LearnBetween the Lines: Betting from Your Phone MorningHow the morning called it: MLB market report

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