Value sitting with the underdogs tonight. 4 signals, mostly dogs.
May 25, 2026 · Updated 2026-05-25T17:34:56.575781Z
Observation
Signal volume stayed restrained on this slate. SharpPicks found 13 edges, but only the strongest setups survived the confidence and qualification filters before publication.
Slate Result
-1.0u
Net · 0-1-0
+0.0
CLV Held
9 / 13
Markets Efficient
Bias
Market efficient
Model edge
9 of 13
4 of 13
Top Edge · Settled
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
4.5%+
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles · TB 7, BAL 9
Model: -2.4
·
Close: 1.5
·
CLV: +0.0
Loss · -1.0u
Variance is the cost of doing business. CLV held against close.
Edge Map
TB @ BAL
-12.0%
-1.0u
PHI @ SD
-12.0%
Final PHI 3-0 SD
HOU @ TEX
-12.0%
Final HOU 9-0 TEX
STL @ MIL
-9.5%
Final STL 1-5 MIL
COL @ LAD
-6.3%
Final COL 3-5 LAD
ARI @ SF
-4.5%
Final ARI 6-2 SF
SEA @ OAK
+4.8%
Final SEA 7-0 OAK
MIA @ TOR
-5.4%
Final MIA 8-2 TOR
CIN @ NYM
-5.5%
Final CIN 7-2 NYM
WAS @ CLE
-5.8%
Final WAS 10-2 CLE
NYY @ KC
+7.4%
Final NYY 4-3 KC
CHC @ PIT
+10.7%
Final CHC 1-2 PIT
MIN @ CHW
+12.4%
Final MIN 1-3 CHW
Closing Line Audit
Market closed within model fair value on 4 of 13 settled games.
CHC @ PIT
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
MIN @ CHW
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
NYY @ KC
Open: +1.5
·
Close: +1.5
ARI @ SF
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
CIN @ NYM
Open: -1.5
·
Close: +2.5
COL @ LAD
Open: -1.5
·
Close: -1.5
Near Misses
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals
4.5%+
Edge below threshold.
Implication
Signal missed. Tracked, not removed.
Sharp Principle
Receipts over narratives.
How the morning called it
Read the morning edition ›